Since Bangladesh gained independence in 1971, the population in Bangladesh has grown from 75 million to more than 160 million today; more than two-fold in 47 years. This is a 113 percent growth in less than half of a century. Surprisingly, the last census (2011) experienced a growth of more than 20 percent from 2001 to 2011 which is higher than that of the previous decade (17 percent from 1991 to 2001). With an area of 147,570 square kilometers, this population load translates into an average population density of 1,070 persons per square kilometer (Bangladesh Demographic Health Survey, 2014), which is one of the highest in the world. After the latest census in 2011, the population of Bangladesh estimated (2014) an increase by 8 million, with an annual increase of more than 2 million. The life expectancy at birth is 72 years (Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, 2018), with women having slightly higher lifespans than men (73.5 years vs.70.6 years).

Though indicators predict Bangladesh is now experiencing a demographic transition with the continuous decline trend, the natural growth rate is expected to lead to a small increase in coming decades. The latest census indicates that the population growth rate in Bangladesh was 1.37 percent. In comparison with other countries in the region, Bangladesh is an intermediate position between low-growth countries, such as Thailand, Sri Lanka and Myanmar. In contrast, medium growth countries in the region are India and Malaysia (BBS 2011). The 2015 projections (medium variant) by the United Nations estimated that the population of Bangladesh in 2050 would be about 202 million (UN 2015).

With the growth of the population in Bangladesh in about half of a century, Bangladesh’s Family Planning Program has had a tremendous role. As stated by Peter Kim Streatfield, a renowned Demographer; in one of his analytical papers in 2013, the Family Planning (FP) program and its role in reducing the fertility rate in the country has been at the center of much scholarly debate. Through various international symposiums and seminars, Bangladesh’s progress in FP movement has been cited as one of the role models to follow. Family Planning was introduced in Bangladesh (then East Pakistan) in the early 1950s through the voluntary efforts of social and medical workers. The government of Bangladesh, recognizing the urgency of its goal to achieve moderate population growth, adopted family planning as a government sector program in 1965.

The policy to reduce fertility rates has been repeatedly reaffirmed by the government of Bangladesh since the country’s independence in 1971. The first five-year plan (1973-78) emphasized the necessity of immediate adoption of drastic steps to slow down population growth. Beginning in 1972, the FP program received virtually unanimous, high-level political support. All subsequent governments have identified population control as a top priority for government action. This political commitment played a crucial role in the fertility decline in Bangladesh. In 1976, the government declared the rapid growth of the population as the country’s number one problem and adopted a multi-sectoral FP program along with a National Population Policy. Population Planning was seen as an integral part of the total development process and was incorporated in the successive five-year plans.

Owing to intense efforts in the country to control the population growth, the total fertility rate (TFR) has been steadily reduced for almost over four decades. From extremely high levels of 6.3 in 1975, to 3.3 in the year 2000, the TFR now stands as 2.3 according to the Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey 2014, which is still some distant away from replacement fertility levels. According to an analysis done by the Population Reference Bureau (PRB) in 2003, even if Bangladesh reached replacement level fertility (whenever it reaches), population stabilization would take another 15 years, and the growth is being fuelled by the large, young population of the country. PRB predicted the replacement level fertility by 2010 which did not take place.

If we further analyze the TFR trend in the past, the 1980s saw a steep decline in TFR as mentioned above by the early 1990s. This was followed by a decade-long plateau which was the consequence of a ‘tempo effect’. The adoption of FP by Bangladeshi couples has always been after the first birth. The age at marriage did not change that much and similarly, there was no delay in age at first birth. As such, no tempo effect was evident on first births. The 2004 Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey (BDHS) showed the first 9 percent reduction in fertility (TFR of 3.3 to 3.0) for a decade. The 2011 BDHS confirmed a further decline in TFR to 2.3 children per woman but again it is stalled as survey result speaks of BDHS 2014, remained 2.3. Now, however, fertility levels are quite uneven – remarkably low in the west of the country (below replacement, on average) and worryingly high in the east (up to 1.5 children above replacement).

In order to attain any of the reasonable population estimates projected for mid-century (which range from 194 to 222 million), a substantial increase in the contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR) will be required in the next five years from its current CPR of 62 to 75 (mostly modern methods) by 2020, though the future intention as per BDHS surveys shows the decreasing trends. This target could theoretically be achieved if all current unmet needs for FP (12% in 2014) were to be met. To echo an overview done by the southeast Asia regional programs, the population growth of Bangladesh is fuelled by a) large base population, b) population momentum due to a large proportion of youths, and c) a stagnating CPR. While not much can be done about the first two factors, a stagnating CPR is a cause for concern. While the government, through its new HPNSDP plans to expand the contraceptive mix by specially promoting permanent methods, it should also think of fertility awareness-based methods, such as long acting methods (LAM), which mimic traditional methods and may be more acceptable to users of traditional methods.

The other window of opportunity is the increasing levels of unmet need in the country. The trend is decreasing but it is really slow. This reflects that communication efforts for promoting family planning are working. Thus, the government; with help from its non-governmental partners, should continue with its family planning messaging and counseling services and try to match the demand, ensuring the availability of family planning services and supplies. It is hoped that the program’s special efforts to reach out to disadvantaged areas and communities will reduce the regional divide in the availability of services and result in a concomitant and balanced increase in CPR in all the divisions. Tailor-made programs need to be chalked out remembering ‘onesize-does-not-fit-all’. Separate focused programs for the youth is needed, keeping regional variations in mind with the accessibility issues, including haors, chars and hilly areas. Bangladesh has a high adolescent fertility rate, one of the highest amongst the south-east Asia region nations. Early initiation of child bearing leads to rapid increases in population by not only lengthening the productive period in the woman’s life, but also by shortening the inter-generational span. As most of the adolescent child bearing occurs within the realm of marriage, it means that the law governing the age at marriage needs a much stricter reinforcement. Convincing the adolescents to delay the first pregnancy and child birth beyond the adolescent age frame will go a long way in bringing TFR down to replacement levels.

Reference

  1. NIPORT (2014), Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey 2014
  2. WHO (2011) Bangladesh and Family Planning: an Overview, World Health Statistics.
  3. Streatfield, PK & Kamal, N (2013), Population and Family Planning in Bangladesh, J Pak Assoc (Suppl. 3), Vol. 63.
  4. Alauddin, M & Faruqee, R (1983), Population and Family Planning in Bangladesh, The World Bank

This article was published on ResInt Research Review, Vol 2 No 1, December 2018. All rights reserved.